Abstract
This study examines the relationship between health expenditure and poverty reduction in Nigeria, employing econometric regression techniques, specifically the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, alongside preliminary stationarity and cointegration tests. Using secondary time-series data from 1999 to 2024 sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of Statistics, the research investigates how variables such as health expenditure (HEX), population growth (POP), corruption (COR), life expectancy rate (LER), per capita income (PCI), HIV prevalence rate (HIV), and infant mortality rate (IMR) influence poverty levels (POV). The stationarity tests using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) indicate that all variables are integrated at order one or two, with the ADF statistics exceeding critical values at 5%, confirming stationarity. Johansen cointegration tests reveal a long-run relationship among the variables, suggesting that these factors collectively influence poverty in Nigeria. The regression results show that health expenditure has a significant negative effect on poverty (β = -4.543, p < 0.001), implying that increased health spending effectively reduces poverty levels. Population growth (β = 3.453, p < 0.001) and corruption (β = 3.176, p < 0.001) positively impact poverty, indicating that rapid demographic expansion and high corruption hinder poverty alleviation. Conversely, life expectancy (β = -9.461, p < 0.011) and per capita income (β = -0.649, p < 0.001) exhibit significant negative relationships with poverty, confirming their roles in promoting economic well-being. HIV prevalence and infant mortality rate, however, are statistically insignificant, suggesting their indirect or mediated effects. The model explains approximately 96.7% of the variance in poverty, with an F-statistic of 114.31 (p < 0.001), confirming its robustness. Based on these findings, the study recommends increasing and efficiently targeting health expenditure, implementing population control strategies, strengthening governance, and fostering economic growth to effectively reduce poverty in Nigeria. The results show the importance of integrated policies that address demographic, health, and governance factors to achieve sustainable poverty reduction.